Author: Oche Thomas Eluma & Raphael Ugwu
Overview
Bird’s Eye Chili farming in Benue State has faced a turbulent three years. In 2023, a devastating Chili Veinal Mottle Virus (ChiVMV) outbreak turned pepper crops yellow, crippling production. By 2024, the disease was brought under control, but insecurity took its place. Herdsmen attacks on farmlands left many farmers fearful, while others abandoned cultivation altogether. Harvesting was dangerous, and large areas of farmland were destroyed.
However, in 2025, the picture is shifting. Federal government interventions and broader public outcry have reduced tensions, allowing more farmers to return to their fields in Otukpo and Apa. The farms are now performing well, with healthy plants that suggest a much stronger season.
State of the Market
- Disease management: The 2023 Chili Veinal Mottle Virus (ChiVMV) has been successfully contained, and current farms are disease-free.
- Security factor: Herdsmen attacks in 2024 severely disrupted farming and harvest activities. Although risks remain, 2025 has seen more farmers return due to peace-brokering efforts.
- Production confidence: Fields are in good condition, and output is expected to be significantly higher than the past two years.
- Pricing history:
- 2023 – ₦1,500/kg.
- 2024 – ₦9,000/kg (driven by scarcity, insecurity, and inflation).
- 2025 projection – ₦3,000–₦5,000/kg at harvest, with peaks around ₦7,000/kg.
- Output distribution: About 50% will go to local consumption and 50% to export, reflecting strong demand both at home and abroad.
Outlook for November 2025 Harvest Season
- Production: Higher volumes are anticipated compared to 2023 and 2024, as more farmers are back on their land.
- Price Trajectory: Prices will open at relatively lower levels (₦3,000–5,000/kg) due to increased availability, then rise gradually to a possible peak of ₦7,000/kg.
- Security risks: By November, herdsmen are expected to return for grazing. Farmers are racing to conclude harvests before tensions escalate. Any outbreak of violence could disrupt harvesting and expose stored harvests to looting.
- Export Potential: With 50% of the crop projected for export, international buyers can expect a stronger supply compared to previous years, though competitiveness will depend on stability during the harvest window.
Risks & Challenge
- Potential resurgence of insecurity as herdsmen return in November.
- Farmers’ confidence remains mixed; not all who left the farms in 2024 have returned.
- Limited investment in post-harvest storage could leave crops vulnerable if violence forces farmers to flee again.
Key Takeaways
- 2025 marks a comeback season for bird’s eye chili in Benue State, thanks to improved security and strong farm recovery.
- Prices are projected to normalize after last year’s highs but remain profitable for farmers and traders.
- Export volumes are expected to grow, provided harvests are completed before security risks intensify in late 2025.
- Long-term stability will require sustained peacebuilding efforts between farmers and herdsmen to ensure uninterrupted cultivation.
